Artemis Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[cousinit] 21/12/2023 13:01

Seems an odd thing to say to Alpha shareholders as they clearly don't have loss aversion...

[sphere25] 21/12/2023 12:50

Interesting commentary here:

"UK investors are driving in the rain

Daniel Kahneman established the concept of "loss aversion", which is a cognitive
bias impacting decision-making under uncertainty. The simple notion is that
basic survival instincts impact human nature meaning that the pain of loss is
felt more highly than the pleasure of an equivalent gain.

Kahneman's demonstrated loss aversion with New York taxi drivers in the rain. A
taxi driver earns more per hour when it is raining than when it is sunny and
there is less demand. The price of a driver's leisure is therefore lower when it
is sunny. Counterintuitively, Kahneman found that taxi drivers work harder when
it is sunny and less when it is rainy. This is because low income on a sunny day
feels like lost income.

The same concept explains why golfers statistically make fewer successful putts
for birdie than for par. A bogey feels like a loss, whereas a par does not.

The concept of loss aversion is widely applicable to financial markets where
volatility in prices creates loss aversion. Customers in a supermarket will buy
more goods when they are on sale, but investors in a stock market do the
opposite. Investment trusts discounts widen after markets fall and fund outflows
are highest after markets decline, not before.

Our view is that loss aversion is impacting behaviour in UK equity markets
following poor and weak absolute and relative performance. One clear indicator
is the fact that there have been over £76bn in outflows from UK funds since
2016. Another is the near halt in the market for initial public offerings after
a boom in 2021."


I like to read things like this. It clearly depends on the state of the market too. When Covid was spreading and then Putin too, it is hard to not go into survival mode. That is what I do, let all the stops get hit and just lob anything that looks weak. Batten up the hatches and hunker down. It really is a case of minimising losses to stay in the game.

Sometimes trading with a survival instinct is good too - keep the trading losses small and love to take small losses. But now that the market is beaten up with depressed valuations and more bullish moves spreading, yes, perhaps market participants now need to worry less about "loss aversion".

That is not to say risk management shouldn't continue to rule the roost, but clearly the risk skews favourably as valuations, sentiment and flows move positively.

Talking of risk management and "loss aversion", note how the VIX is rising, even as markets continue moving higher. Maybe a signal that some profit taking in the US and the likes of the 250 here are due soon? Plenty of overbought in the bigger caps.

But hey, this is my two pennies worth, but I found that commentary a nice different way of putting things out there.

All imo
DYOR

[edwardt] 18/12/2023 20:21

Another miss topvest

[topvest] 27/9/2023 16:31

I've held a few of these for a decade - 2% yield is the only return. A very poor performance. I have exited, despite the discount, as I don't rate their stock picking skills....all a bit too eclectic if you ask me.

[richtea2517] 23/9/2022 17:23

Had a nibble here today

[sphere25] 07/3/2022 11:16

Full marks on key risks to ATS here.

Europe is now significantly under performing the US due to the disproportionate moves in gas here, but how long can the US keep outperforming at an index level if consumers start to reign in their spending:

S&P earnings 230
S&P currently trading at 4254
18.5x

That multiple is way too high IF this is more than a growth scare. They could fall at least 25% from here. Clearly there are alot of moving parts and I don't know what happens this afternoon let alone later down the line, but it is food for thought.

Picking bottoms in markets is difficult.

Hopefully a resolution to the war to come and this doom and gloom period passes for all.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 16/12/2021 15:10

These assumptions are interesting:

"The following working assumptions have informed portfolio construction and will be subject to change in what has proven to be a dynamic environment:

· GDP growth - nominal GDP growth to remain resilient as excess savings support consumption, particularly in the UK.

· Reopening - Covid will follow a bumpy path towards becoming endemic with uncertainty over timing due to the Omicron variant.

· Interest rates - short-term movements are intertwined with pandemic developments. In the medium-term, interest rates are likely rise to reflect a normalisation of policy. The key uncertainty is how far they will rise.

· Digitalisation - will remain a key force for change across most industries, with a risk that this factor is being temporarily overlooked as pricing power for many industries has been restored by the peculiar macroeconomic conditions that currently prevail.

The key risks that we are monitoring are 1) the potential for energy prices to rise further given tight markets and geopolitical risks and 2) a loss of confidence in central bankers leading to a material upward shift in real rates."

[brucek1812] 15/5/2021 13:13

I hold ARR which has a (very) similar make-up but more concentrated portfolio of Frasers, Dignity, budget airlines and house builders. Both trusts look to be in a good position and benefitting from uptick in Frasers share price / reopening.

[sd235] 15/5/2021 10:41

The only thing I am unhappy with is the spread. Ludicrously wide. Someone remind me was it always this wide? I first bought end 2017discount 19%. Small purchase thought the change strategy looked good. Moved up steady but discount remaind. Bought more during the crash at the same price as 2017 purchase. Fell 30% more! I am now up 50%. So happy.
Very happy!

[dragonsteeth] 29/4/2021 08:20

Yep, I’m a holder. I’m happy it’s quietly ticking away, there was a strange spike down of 8% the other day which on investigation I put down to one trade at the end of the day, and it recovered that yesterday.

[mike the mechanic] 28/4/2021 18:58

Any other interest here?
Alpha has performed well since the Covid hit and is now 30% ahead of it's pre-Covid high

[cordwainer] 28/11/2019 13:58

Speaking of which, since i sold out the NAV and share price has, of course, had some kind of rocket boosters. Definitely not Rocket Internet though. It seems Sports Direct, Easyjet, Tesco, Dignity, Capital and Counties Properties, Barclays have all done well since 9 Aug, those names accounting for approx 29% of the fund. And 0.5% of NAV spent on buy backs recently.
Enviable and surprisingly good 3-4 month run trouncing the FTSE All-Share really, given legs in part through Retail, Banking, and an Airline. Can't say i saw that coming, I can only file this under 'opportunity cost'.

[rooky4] 09/11/2019 16:47

The money in Reaction Engines tells all one needs to know about why there is a massive discount.
Just like Woodford et al, the manager here is bored with just making money - he has all he will ever need and then some.
So instead, "interesting" unlisted punts become the norm - in this case supporting British tech, and pay-back is in hero status for the manager rather than monetary payback for the share holders.

It's up to the board to recognise what is happening and get in a fresh manager.

[cordwainer] 09/8/2019 16:28

The discount narrowed by about 4% without the price moving and I'm out. Needs better top 10 window dressing imho. But for science and engineering sake, I still hope Reaction Engines get off the ground and into space eventually.

[spectoacc] 31/7/2019 21:25

If you want an IT even bigger - much bigger - into those picks, have a look at "Buffettology" ARR. I've been on their case for some time :)

No discount either, & usually trades at a premium.

I've yet to work out what's "Buffettology" about their punts.

[tiltonboy] 31/7/2019 19:05

Add in Dixons Carphone, and you have to wonder what is going on. Kartik might have a short reign at this rate.

[cordwainer] 31/7/2019 18:10

I'm doubtful of the risk / reward outlook of the Sports Direct, Tesco and Dignity holdings going forward. But the discount is at nearly 19%, similar to my entry point at March 15th.
Sports Direct in particular has surely become a contrarian play rather than the growth strategy espoused by the trust ?

[shiv1986] 26/2/2019 09:30

See the latest ADVFN twitter poll about Funds:

[jhan66] 10/10/2018 16:33

AGM tomorrow. Could do with something positive but price movement not encouraging

[tiltonboy] 30/4/2018 20:33

robow,

Many thanks. I guessed there was a comment somewhere with a number of early trades, but couldn't find it. NAV has been strong recently, and that allied to a re-rating could see further strength in the share price.

[robow] 30/4/2018 19:30

from Investment Trust Insider
Three trusts gunning for change for the better

A more straightforward proposition lies at Artemis Alpha Trust (ATS), a ‘best ideas’ fund from Artemis Fund Managers that has gone badly off the boil in recent years as bets on unlisted companies and resources stocks have not paid off. At 320p the shares trade 18% below NAV, a huge discount that reflects investor disenchantment with the performance under managers Adrian Paterson and John Dodd.

The shares offer a potential recovery situation after the company announced Paterson would retire and be replaced by Artemis’ rising star Kartik Kumar who has cut his teeth helping run its Strategic Assets fund. The board also signalled its desire to improve the trust’s rating by overhauling its fees and giving shareholders the chance to sell shares at NAV in three years time. This could help help to narrow the gap between the shares and their asset value if performance improves.