Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[polar fox] 17/4/2024 21:04

Q1 Consensus

I can't recall whether it's been mentioned on here, but my attention has been drawn to the Consensus, published by the group on 20 March.
It doesn't make very good review - many of the numbers are lower than last year, including NIM and the total dividend.

The Lloyds Consensus is somewhat similar, although their dividend increases by 9%.

[polar fox] 17/4/2024 07:57

So, looking ahead, next month the monthly CPI increase was 1.2 a year ago, which provides plenty of scope for a significant decrease as it drops out of the annual calculation. Also, this year we have the cut in the energy price cap that kicked in on April 1. We might see the latest 3.2 down to around 2.5, but that's just me hazarding an early best guess, in the face of a number of factors pointing in different directions.

The month after next, the monthly CPI increase was 0.7 a year ago, which will again provide scope for a decrease this year. Beyond that, it gets tricky, but that can wait.

[polar fox] 17/4/2024 07:10

All three inflation numbers have come in a tenth higher than consensus - a touch disappointing but OK-ish.

CPI 3.2 vs 3.4 last month
CORE 4.2 vs 4.5
RPI 4.3 vs 4.5

FTSE was up 20 or so on IG earlier, but is now about 10 points lower than 7820.

[polar fox] 15/4/2024 13:42

US retail sales up sharply - DOW jumps on IG, FTSE higher, back above 8,000.

[svend2] 14/4/2024 00:23

Yes and the US housing market already spiralling out of control again down -4.1 % for the last 3 months

[svend2] 13/4/2024 22:30

I agree but the real kicker is the USA sector rotation with the real estate sector currently down the most at 4.10% in the last 3 months and the worst is still to play out unless a rate reduction is forthcoming so is this another boom or bust circle.?

[chiefbrody] 13/4/2024 14:57

Would also help if the US stopped creating funny money like there's no tomorrow.

[svend2] 12/4/2024 22:50

Get the energy costs and oil/gas prices and then food costs grains/cocoa etc under control and the inflation shall fall in line without this everything is up in the air adding to the crises/tension in the Middle East no wonder the governments are paralysed/abstaining from lowering interest rates.

[chiefbrody] 12/4/2024 18:46

Depends if the US lets it.

[polar fox] 12/4/2024 17:35

For info, the FTSE got very close to a new ATH this afternoon. It reached 8044.98, before a bit of Friday profit-taking and that compares with 8047.06 in February last year. We'll see if the market wants to go past 8050 in the near-term.

[polar fox] 11/4/2024 16:19

Muchas gracias.

Hmmm, it doesn't really add a whole lot to what we already know! No doubt the folk at HMT have the article's sentiments fully in mind, which is why it may not go ahead.

[polar fox] 11/4/2024 16:00

Skinny,

Is your Times sub still going? There was an article this morning, which said that the gov't is close to making a final yes or no decision on the possible retail offer and it questioned whether Sid would be listening anyway. Would be useful if you can post it obviously.

[smurfy2001] 11/4/2024 14:56

ECB leaves eurozone interest rates on hold but hints at cut this summer – business live

[polar fox] 11/4/2024 13:54

PPI has risen 'only' 0.2 on the month and the DOW and FTSE have jumped higher (from where they were immediately before the announcement) on IG as a result, in the first few minutes at least. But they're not much changed from last night as I type.

[polar fox] 11/4/2024 07:49

How things are changing.
Also be alert for the US PPI numbers at 1:30 - the consensus is for rises in both PPI and core.

Meantime, Bloomberg:

Investors are signaling the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just twice this year, starting in September, after a fresh round of hot inflation sent Treasury yields soaring to 2024 highs.

This turn of events was unthinkable at the start of the year, when the consensus view was for six cuts totaling 1.5 percentage points, beginning in March. Swap contracts currently anticipate the Fed’s rate will end the year only about 40 basis points lower than its current level of 5.33%. Options traders added bets on the Fed cutting just once this year, and Wall Street banks began revising their forecasts.

unquote

[johnwise] 10/4/2024 22:38

VIDEO

There will be no interest rate cuts this year.

CPI Inflation Report a Disaster: Inflation Re-Accelerates

[polar fox] 10/4/2024 14:09

On IG, the Dow's trading low so far today is 38,356, down over 500 from last night's NY close. If the Fed chooses not to cut in May and June, the next FOMC is at the end of July, then September. Will rates be cut in Europe before the Fed moves then?

ADD: From Barron's:

The European Central Bank will probably leave interest rates unchanged this week, but it may give clues about whether it’s ready to start lowering borrowing costs at its next meeting in June.

unquote (very timely)

[polar fox] 10/4/2024 13:36

US CPI very disappointing, both measures are a tenth over consensus. CPI up from 3.2 to 3.5, not 3.4 and core unchanged at 3.8, rather than 3.7.
The Fed won't be happy and the DOW has lost over 300 points in seconds on IG.

ADD: Make that over 400 points in 10 minutes.