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FCPT F&c Commercial Property Trust Limited

121.20
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
F&c Commercial Property Trust Limited LSE:FCPT London Ordinary Share GG00B4ZPCJ00 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 121.20 0.00 00:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
121.40 121.60
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 121.20 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
28/6/201910:30F&C Commercial Property Trust192

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Posted at 28/6/2019 10:30 by vacendak
New thread for FCPT/BCPT:
Posted at 04/4/2019 10:14 by skyship
Mark – sorry, but in your own interests I would challenge much of what you write. You seem to have some cursory knowledge of the sector, but the key word there is cursory!

Perhaps follow the posts over on the CP+ thread; and over time you will both learn and profit.

# Firstly – P. No.176: “Divvies have been steady over that three years; I don't care about valuation fluctuations as long as the income keeps rolling in…”

Income and capital are two sides of the same coin. A good investment needs to preserve or enhance on both counts. If the capital erodes then should you need to access a specific sum of cash, patently you will have to sell far more of your investment than would otherwise be the case. Denying this fact is one of the most basic errors in the investment lexicon; and I would urge you to take that on board.

# Secondly – P.No.189: “So it kind of feels like we are caught up in a general sector decline”

Wrong, there is no general sector decline. Sure, over the past 3 Qtrs the global economy has stalled and property valuations have done likewise; stalled, but not declined to any measurable degree. Here in the UK the rank badly managed Brexit negotiations have sapped confidence from the market, so activity has markedly slowed. But underlying fundamentals remain positive and in the regions rents are still rising, except in most Retail. Once Brexit is resolved, then pent up demand for high yielding assets will once again reassert; and yield compression will again lift valuations.

# Thirdly – P.No.189: “In my opinion the challenge from online is putting pressure on bricks and mortars retailers”.

This is not your opinion – this is FACT. Certainly for the past two years it has been the most important driver affecting property portfolios. An excessive allocation to Retail (NB: NOT Retail Warehouse) in cases such as Intu, Hammerson & New River for instance, has had a profound effect upon valuations; and the dreaded CVA has become the nightmare stalking the text of Property Manager reports!

# Fourthly – P.No.189: “…yield compression…”

This is an important factor driving valuations, but you use the phrase incorrectly. YC arises from active property transactions (acquisitions) in a competitive market driving valuations up and corresponding yields down. With global interest rates again declining, it is perhaps surprising that well-tenanted, regional industrial & office properties can still provide yields of, say, 8.5%. If competitive bidding sustains a yield reduction to, say, 8.0%, then the underlying valuation will rise 6.25%. Now factor in an average LTV of 35%; and suddenly you’re looking at an NAV uplift of 9.0%. All on the back of simple YC.

# Fifthly – P.No.189: “If I were looking for capital growth I'd avoid the property sector altogether.”

Again Wrong; actually totally and manifestly WRONG!!!

There is plenty of evidence that property investment outperforms equity investment.

What you need to bear in mind is that property gain doesn’t come from YC alone. Propcos also gain from:
# rent reviews
# change of use
# portfolio sales and reinvestment on higher yields
# lease extensions (tenancy renewals on longer leases)
# increased occupancy (lettings of empty space)
# property refurb.
# peripheral development
# restricted development driving up local property rentals/values
# & there are likely others I have omitted!

Among other places, read P22 of this RGL Presentation:



I’ve spent enough time on this, so will just end with one final homily: Never, ever buy a propco trading at a premium to NAV. FCPT did just that for far too long; and has cost many for that one reason alone.
Posted at 03/4/2019 15:55 by markth
I see a number of things driving share price The first is that property isn't very liquid. When there's structural danger (Brexit) investors will pull their money out of less liquid sectors like property. Of course FCPT is closed end and a rush of redemptions doesn't make them a forced seller at depressed valuations like it would an open ended fund. So it kind of feels like we are caught up in a general sector decline. SLI which I also hold for income has been marked down quite a lot too along with FCPT. The second is mix. In my opinion the challenge from online is putting pressure on bricks and mortars retailers with many well known and long established names going under in recent times. To complete, the B&M guys have to cut costs which means reduced rents, which depresses valuations on retail property due to yield compression. FCPT knows this and is divesting retail as fast as it can, and moving money towards industrials which is doing quite well. The sectoral shift will come at the cost of a small dip to share price from selling out of retail when the price is low, but will increase yield by reinvesting in industrial. Finally there are some interesting (positive) tax angles from restructuring as a REIT. I don't really understand this very well but others say it will be accretive over the medium term.

These views are biased of course as I am in this for income. If I were looking for capital growth I'd avoid the property sector altogether.
Posted at 03/4/2019 11:07 by markth
About the dividend. The EPS as reported by ADVFN currently 11.6p, with dividend of 6p and cash flow of 4.72p.

Last report and available figures suggest that 80% of the dividend is covered by income, which is a solid revenue stream independent of the capital values placed on the properties. Looking back a few periods to 2017 I can see that the dividend has never been covered fully by income during that period, and the remaining balance has been met through disposals and the occasional dip into reserves.

You can argue that the disposals in future may not be as lucrative given the depressed capital values on property, and that may put the dividend under pressure. Let's say that 50% of the disposals are profitable and 50% not. That would impact the dividend by 20%. At this price the stock would then be yielding 4.4%, which is still quite decent.

The dividend has endured for many years and through harder times than this. Once Brexit is out of the way the share price will recover and the Outlook for commercial property will improve as confidence returns to the business sector. The current share price travails are just another small dip on the 20 year history I have with this share.
Posted at 02/4/2019 13:40 by vacendak
If one looks at the graph from 2005, FCPT has seen some pretty bad patches. My bet is that the current one is Brexit related, or to be more precise Brexit uncertainty related. Once the indecision is removed, one way or another, the share price will be back to be evaluated on the merits of the trust and what it holds and not just the keywords "Commercial" "Property" "UK".

I will be adding a bit more too, at 117.60p it seems sufficiently down. The proposed change to UK REIT should also improve the image in the medium term.

Looking at it, this is also the sick dog in my holdings too.
Posted at 04/2/2019 08:58 by vacendak
An update, mostly bad news:

Drop in NAV, also dropping more than the reference index.

Let's eat my hat viz. my previous statement of the portfolio being stagnant. There have been a few sales, one at premium, another two at a loss. Selling at a loss is explained by "strategy" of course. Cannot be an admission of past mistake, can it?
The sales were of vacant or mostly vacant properties, so the void-rate has now been lowered.

Warning about things potentially getting worse before they get better, as the rules for valuations seem to have become stricter of late, so we should expect further drop in NAV.

No explicit threat to the dividend.
Posted at 21/1/2019 14:11 by vacendak
I must agree that FCPT is not doing great at all at the moment.

However, one needs to bear in mind the structure, this is just a list of buildings that the trust owns and they collect the rent.
Significant changes in the portfolio/property list are pretty rare.

Everything comes down to what the valuers tell them the buildings are worth. With tales of bloodbath on the high street and the big B word, these valuations may be at best "tentative" right now. For instance, looking back to the times just after the actual referendum result, they could not even get a proper NAV value.

As already mentioned, the 0.5p per share per month has been paid like clockwork, the quality of the tenants is good so the 0.5p should be safe.

I could be wrong, but this should be something that people buy into and never sell. They buy to hold for the divi. Unless we reset the clock to the mid-90s and somehow expect another twenty years of fever in the "brick and mortar" market; I would not expect the NAV to catch fire anytime soon.

With my current time horizon, I should be into growth only, I got into this for the sake of diversification in style. With hindsight, I should have put the money elsewhere, but I do not see the point of selling now.

The steady erosion of the share price could also be linked to the idea of reorganising the trust, bringing it back from Jersey. I have not checked the latest reports, but last year or so there were some rumblings about tax regime changes and how to adapt to that. The Exchequer always needs more money and hitting property/landlords has been their style since George Osborne. Offshore trusts like this one might be in the cross-hair too.
Posted at 11/12/2018 10:10 by skyship
So, a 4.6% yield and an 8.3% NAV discount.

Does that represent VALUE? I think not.

Have to agree with andyj on this one. Why would you hold when you can do so much better?
==========================================

Net Asset Value
The unaudited net asset value (‘NAV’) per share of the Group as at 30 September 2018 was 141.8 pence. This represents a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the unaudited NAV per share as at 30 June 2018 of 143.2 pence and a NAV total return for the quarter of 0.1 per cent.
==========================================
Posted at 11/12/2018 09:29 by markth
Divvies have been steady over that three years; I don't care about valuation fluctuations as long as the income keeps rolling in. If it's capital growth you're after this probably isn't the share for you.
Posted at 08/7/2017 20:46 by vacendak
Basically, if you are retired or about to retire and in search of income, the 0.5p per share per month (few trusts pay monthly divis) should be a no brainer. It is now covered 87% by rent income, an increase of 7% according to the latest video update recently posted on the F&C/FCPT website.

Like many I do not like buying at premium, but I have made an exception for this one because I wanted a bit of property exposure. The Brexit bit is now factored in, it was a big shakedown just after the vote for sure. The AR prior to the referendum already mentioned that the trust was entering an income phase and that the wild share price growth based on property value was coming to an end. As the share price graphs now show, FCPT has recovered from the vote, but is not flying as high as it used to.

I came in with a lump sum at around 145p before the referendum, then carried on drip-feeding monthly all the way down.. and all the way back-up. Pound averaging has worked wonders, so I am relatively happy. Still, I would have been better off putting that money in a generic global fund like FRCL or WTAN, even with the dividend included.

Long term, if you want growth, go for Private Equity like everybody. :)
FCPT is good quality, so a tad expensive (premium) but reliable for income. I would also expect it to weather the next market crash better than the rest.

FCPT is pure property, there is no builders, land holding or other trust/funds in it. You can get the list of the buildings owned by the trust, and their address, in the AR and HY reports.
F&c Commercial Property share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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