GHHGHHNo argument from me that the assets of the company are superb. But there is a big issue here that isn't getting discussed.What about the cash position and BLVN's ability to continue as a going concern? None of the cheerleaders seem to mention this. If a deal with Lukoil (or someone else) isn't completed by the end of October the company will be running on empty as it'll be down to around Â£10m when you factor in contingent liabilities. The auditor will be reluctant to sign off as a going concern without assurances on future finance.Yes, it might be possible to raise finance through loan notes but without a deal on the table that monetises the assets these loan notes will attract high rates due to the level of risk.I remain unconvinced that a takeover at 60p is possible should Lukoil fall through. If we get to the end October and need to agree a takeover to continue, do you not agree that there'll be a fire sale element to the discussions?
Cheers Paulson this from lse is for you..trader250Posts: 305Off TopicOpinion: Strong BuyPrice: 40.00View Thread (3)RE: Blog eveil knievel buy recToday 15:22Yes, West Africa is attracting a lot of industry interest and I think BLVN being considered as takeover candidate as we are presently so cheap. (I note some posters on iii seem to think EA is still being considered - it is a given as simply a rubber-stamping exercise now just as anything else of material significance has to be officially signed by the President). Certainly momentum building up now and SP should re-rate to 70p in short term.
West African Minerals Corporation (WAFM) Takeover Talk,Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL) is close to acquiring an iron ore mine in West Africa to secure raw material for its recently commissioned steelâ¦
The obsession with short termist takeover offers amazes me. It is certainly a possibility both pre and post deal. As Colebrooke states it has happened a number of times before.
However, its a quick fix and would cerainly undervalue Bowleven's potential. they have a 4 well compaign with very significant upside. Our 20% will be worth a lot more than it is currently worth post those appraisals when P90 becomes P10 and P50.
Between a rock and a hardplace? No funds time running out!
As the FO deal is clearly a non starter because of the liablity costs to PFC which as yet are unknown the only appropriate course of action is to invite takeover offers.
I Suttie must be seething, why isn't he pushing for a full TO or is the different agenda at play?
No TO by July 21 I believe it's bust or close to dilution as PFC compensation bill might be large?.
And there's me led to believe that the industry would put a value on it with a TO, well where is it. Must be waiting for the shit to hit the fan and want it for peanuts.
KH out manouvered at every turn what a plonker! Don't forget the fools who hang on his and lecons every word, a prayer is needed for them.
KMR: Bid for 20p on the way. hxxp://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/iluka-makes-takeover-offer-for-kenmare-resources-20140626-zsmxs.html
log - I'm still here and just to set the record straight (as i assume you are being facetious) i never said we would be sold for 150 pre FID!
I accept now, after this deal that our takeover value has diminished significantly (obviously) as we have a smaller pie to sell.
In much the same way we won't be taken out for 60, as you and paul have been claiming for weeks up until the announcement, we won't go for 150 either. Infact unless a white knight emerges we're not getting taken over at all!
I'm still very much a bull and actually am pleased with the outcome all things being equal. Yes we'd have liked a better deal, but at least for us long termers we can bottom draw this and carry on with our lives without worrying that we're going to be flogged for 60p or even worse run out of cash!
Sorry, my question is if you think the above why are you considering buying more?
All i would say to points 1 thru 3 - what would you have done differently (please don't say sell the company). We all knew he was in discussion about a farm out and are now not happy with the terms. Its silly. Hes done hist best and managed to keep 25% and some drills in the bag.
We now will have no more financial uncertainty hanging over us.
Yes we would have liked 500m but as Log and ghh say - these are tough times in junior oil and gas. IMO Kev has made the best of bad situation and we should be thankful that our investment is now safeguarded and underlined for the long time.
The only folk miffed are the get rich(er) quick crew who were clambering for a takeover. If Kev says its a good deal - I trust him.
I notice a lot more are speaking up now after my postings last night and also now that Le Conn and his fantasist crew are no longer posturing and ganging up against those with an alternative view. In fact I swear some of his crew and positively mutinous.
If we can have 70 pence with a takeover why wait 3 years when we can have it right now? I back WShak's campaign and pledge my 1%. Anybody that says we should wait three years that is positively daft. This is never going back to a pound. Hart cannot be trusted to spend another BLVN dollar.
Hart should get fired and stuff his presentations where the sun does not shine. If that cannot be voted through, he should have his and his staff's salary trimmed by 66%. These are lean times and austerity should start at the top.
The mugs were grunting TO's anywhere Â£1-Â£3 not so long ago.
The fake lippy was bought at a back st mkt stall. The mugs cross dressers(hyacynth69) are now crying into their pints mascarer running down their cheeks, boo hoo.
Winnets needs to wipe his arse before he speaks another deluded fool.
No takeover by 21 july,.. 30p beckons soon after and when the cash runs out before Etinde comes on stream more dilution 5p.
Shareholders fleeced again but the back slappers at the 27 Feb can't see it, taken for a ride again.
Hang your heads in shame mugs.
Change; Agreed- I think that's the whole idea of the article, to put out noises that big shareholders are up for a full takeover rather this farm out deal. You never know, it might just work.
i can't fault your maths...but clearly 41p & HNWIs up in arms trying to scupper this deal or extract a T/O instead tells you all you need to know
That they were hoping for a takeover...
I can't see anyone making a takeover bid in the next 3 weeks, that's just clutching at straws.
Takeover mid to late 2016 would be my guestimation, assuming Kenya doesn't turn out to be a monster:)
I have always in Estes here with a long term outlook. Downside is minimal and luckily I am in profit. I believe in the upside in etinde and bomono. Whilst underpinning the share price it is very much a jam tomorrow deal. Would be surprised if no takeover bid is flushed out.
I'm not going to get into a spat about this. As i've said before, today is a good day and I'm happy.
I don't recall i ever 'called it' what i am calling is that BLVN are on plan and on target to develop Etinde and to monitise their aset.
I'm not the one that wanted a takeover! (at 60p lol)
So i'm really pleased you made some dosh. I really mean that as you've obviously done a bit of homework. I think you may live to regret selling such a large amount, but that is not something that will keep me awake at night. Thats good for you, really.
I am pleased you now have conceded that we're not likely to be taken over for 60p - I like you hope we (if its still we) get taken over but i have a feeling you wont be around to see it...
This whole deal is all about 2 free drills on Etinde updip.I guess you'll be back to join the party closer to the time, but you'll be paying a much larger premium IMO.
GL and good night.
If one or more companies had already started doing some due diligence on BLVN with respect to takeover or farm in, then Kev wouldn't have been able to inform them of the Lukoil/NA talks. At the same time, he would not be have been able to inform Lukoil or NA about the approaches of others, assuming that those approaches had been subject to confidentiality agreement and not amounting to an 'an offer'.
It's quite possible that there might be a counter off 'on the shelf' read to go somewhere, which means that it could come in the next 3 weeks before today's deal is signed.
Might that be why Kev sounded so bullish on the conference call? He knows a better offer might come and that today's offer might be the least we can expect but still good enough to see us through to FID and production?
Unlikely IMO, but still possible.
Good post chicken. I think the mood here sums up the sort term mind set of the private investor. We, I say we, are so fixated with take overs and the next multi bagger that we fail to see any positives in today's news. Institutions (see how many pats on the back KH received in the conference call) realize that this one deal has secured a solid financial future for the company whilst still retaining a decent sized stake in a large upstream development. Perhaps we all need to retune our expectations in terms of market cap versus Capex costs to bring a project like this online. We are just a minnow in the grand scheme of things. Im not saying I wouldn't have preferred a takeover but I'm sure that once the dust settles we will start to see a steady rise on the back of Institutions reentering. GSA meeting is apparently scheduled for mid July so hopefully once this is completed we can all look forward and not back.
Well if no takeover:
Cash: $170 million = 31p
Little extra for what is left over from last placing: say 4.5p ($25 million?).
Post-wells: $40 million = 7.5p
Post FID: $40 million = 7.5p
So 35p in cash in 3 weeks and possibility of that being 50p this time next year.
Then factor in expenditure in the next year (assuming it is pretty limited aside from admin costs and a possible Bomono contribution). Then risk weight the conditional $80 million and you get say a total 40p cash value NOW. (35 (cash) + 15 (conditional cash) - 10 (expenditure and discounting)
Then add in BLVN's 20%. At todays valuation it is 23p ($125 million). This needs to be risk weighted and discounted to say 15p. Clearly it could be alot more if the appraisal wells hit the bullseye.
Add in a bit for Kenya.
Anyhow the above to me gives a floor valuation of 50p minimum NOW.
ps log - re appraisals - i know - its was a typing error. 210 plus 40. I get it.
Lets stop all this 60-70p takeover would have been better chat.
Better for who? Not for me!
Let just draw a line under it. Its now not happening so end of story.
It did with Caracal when they had a ferm out/merger planned. Glencore swooped in with a better takeover offer!
BLVN: was hoping for a takeover but unlikely now?
I firmly believe the upside on Etinde will take our 20/25% in terms of resources back up to what it is with 75% of the acreage. The Intra is potentially a mammoth play and this deal derisks the company. We now have more cash nearly than the market cap and for the time being the assets thrown in for free.
2 Appraisal drills
2 bomono drills
All to play for. In many ways very attractive but makes takeover unlikely.
James-If this farm out cancels the petrofac agreement what's there to say they can't throw in a takeover...? Your views please
bones - i'm not sure what you mean by that post.
I've said all along - no takeover at 60p. I'm not suggesting and never have done that this is going to fly to 150 or that our oil/gas is worth 15$! I think you have have misinterpreted something.
I'm off out for the day.
Good luck to all holders. Genuinely.
I'm not knocking anything, least of all you as I value your opinion - however on this occasion it looking like your 60p takeover expectation has been shot out the water by this mornings news...It would be nice to see some humility!
If we were to get taken out at FID 500m hopefully won't be too far off the money. But i could be wrong!
This and the EEEA underline this as an investment proposition for me and very happy to be holding a lot of shares.
Today is a good day.
So no takeover -this may take time.
The relentless optimism of some holders here never ceases to amaze me.
Personally I value BLVN's other assets at less than 0. Now they have cash they will quickly revert to type (high board pay, generate negative value from expo spend). I certainly don't want to hold BLVN whilst they burn their way through this cash pile.
As ghhghh says a takeover at 60p-80p would have given better shareholder returns.
Agree takeover unlikely cause we've just farmed out!!!!
I'm very disappointed. 60p - 80p cash bid would have been massively preferable.
imo shares will trade around 45 - 50p today. What does that tell you?
Paul. Do you think we are still going to get taken over for 60p?
Am I missing something? This deal values BLVN at c.69p? but a third of that conditional on FID.
I expected a farm out to be significantly better valuation than takeover since can be conditional and not all cash upfront.
So my estimated of 60p to 80p bid looks spot on?
Thanks for the views on Bonomo.... When is the drop dead date for the penalty payment....Surely Kev will get the penalty date re-negotiated as it's payable to SNH?I am hoping Bonomo is now tied up in a bigger deal.... Hopefully a full takeover!
Tiler if you can prove that or KH. Can in writing then that's fine but I think you will find its not in writing and was more a verbal agreement made . Ill try to find the presentation and repost it . Might be a none event anyway by that time with either takeover , sale or farm out before then but it did concern me and when I asked the question it was not answered as I would like to confirm it was definite .
"One point I notice you didn't comment on was how many supposed respected posters have said this will not reach fid"
My comment is that I disagree with them! Most of them have said they're looking for a quick buck openly - Its not something I want. I want the grapes to mature before we harvest so to speak...
I'm not worried about market reaction to EA - frustrating yes but its important to realise the implications for this agreement - this a profound step towards monetisation and changes the way potential investors view BLVN. For me (IMO) it substantially de-risked my large investment in BLVN. My eyes are on the prize and that prize certainly isn't a 60p takeover...
Fair point about under expecting and over delivering. Just wish Kevs PR team did that a few years ago. IE. 'best well in our history' and 'we've hot the jackpot' comments!